13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 5

Set your alarm clocks and brew a pot of coffee — we have our first London game of the season!

Fans across England are in for a real treat as a QB legend makes his international debut. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is playing as well.

Sam Darnold continues to lead the NFL in touchdown passes with 11. The Minnesota Vikings have now defeated three 2023 playoff teams (San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay) in a row. Everything is clicking in Minnesota, with positive vibes all around.

Darnold now faces a Jets defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the entire NFL.

There’s also a revenge-game narrative: Darnold faces off against the franchise that selected him third in the 2018 NFL Draft. A win over his former team would be another feather in the cap of a player who is quickly shifting his career narrative with every touchdown pass and Vikings win.

Here are a few more things to look out for in Week 5 and throughout the rest of the season.

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1. Kenneth Walker’s big performance: In Ryan Grubb we trust

Walker missed Weeks 2 and 3 (abdomen), but returned with a bang on Monday Night Football. He had the best performance of his career, fantasy-wise, scoring three TDs and finishing with 33.6 points.

A Seattle RB putting up strong fantasy numbers has been par for the course this year behind the outstanding play-calling of wunderkind OC Ryan Grubb (OK, not really — he is 48 but new to the NFL). Grubb arrived from the University of Washington with significant anticipation and hype, and so far he is delivering in a major way.

Walker’s performance marks the fourth time we have seen a Seattle RB finish as a Top 9 weekly finisher at the position — just remarkable consistency and productivity. Grubb adjusted his game plan in Weeks 2 and 3, and Zach Charbonnet finished with terrific scoring numbers as well.

Seattle’s RB success has coincided with DK Metcalf’s 17.7 PPR PPG average — seventh-best at the WR position — and Geno Smith settling in as the QB8 overall. Grubb is maximizing production across multiple positions and showing his adaptability to produce with changing personnel. Seattle is 3-1.

2. King Henry and the Ravens roll

Baltimore started the season disappointingly at 0-2, with losses to Kansas City and Las Vegas. However, it quickly evened things out with back-to-back wins over 2023 playoff participants Dallas and Buffalo. The Ravens have had a simple game plan in both victories: get the ball to Derrick Henry.

Henry shredded Dallas, and he was even better against Buffalo. Any hope the Bills had of slowing him down was put to bed early. On Baltimore’s first offensive play of the game, Henry ripped off an 87-yard TD run, sprinting past multiple Bills defensive backs all the way to the end zone. The emphatic run was a gut punch for Buffalo and a further wake-up call to any fantasy manager who faded Henry this season.

His offseason preparation and workout routines are legendary. In his new home with the Ravens, Henry is still competing against himself , but the speed he displayed was still shocking to see from a 30-year-old.

Henry has 383 total yards over the past two games (along with four TDs). He joins fellow “old guys” Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley atop the RB scoring leaders.

This week he is also chasing a milestone: Henry is 18 yards away from becoming the 32nd player in NFL history with 10,000 rushing yards.

3. Brian Thomas Jr.: Another rookie breakout

This rookie class is special, with multiple players making significant fantasy impacts. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. have (deservedly) drawn most of the early attention among rookie WRs, and Rome Odunze had a huge breakout game in Week 3. However, the strong play by Brian Thomas Jr. has been somewhat lost in the shuffle.

BTJ is stuck on a dumpster fire of a team, and the 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be going nowhere. But the 21-year-old is playing at a very high level and trending up. He has been targeted nine times in consecutive games. In the Week 4 loss to Houston, Thomas Jr. had his best game as a pro, finishing with 99 total yards and a TD.

He has earned a 22.8% target share (per Fantasy Points Data) and is currently the WR15 overall.

4. Nico Collins: League winner

What more is there to say about Collins at this point? He continues to produce week after week. Collins followed up a season low 12.7 points in Week 3 with a 33-point outburst. He set career highs in targets (15) and catches (12). The Texans are heavily utilizing him, targeting him 10 or more times in three straight weeks.

Collins has a legitimate chance to finish as the WR1 overall, but certainly has some competition at the top…

5. Malik Nabers: Target hog

The WR1 overall has led the league in targets and catches for three consecutive weeks. Your current leader in both categories is Malik Nabers.

In 2023, Sam LaPorta became the first rookie ever to finish as the TE1 overall. It may be time for a rookie WR to join him by cracking another fantasy football glass ceiling. Rookie WRs have come close, with three top six scorers at the position over the past four seasons (Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua).

None have had as fast a start to their careers as Nabers.

He is overcoming a middling at best Giants offense with some of the most ridiculous target share numbers we have ever seen.

His 36 % targets per routes run lead all WR1s and no player in football is being targeted on more first-read looks (47.1% per Fantasy Points Data). Though he’ll miss Week 5 with a concussion, when he returns, expect more of the same from New York’s one-man offensive show.

6. Jake Ferguson: Promising usage

Ferguson was knocked out of the game in Week 1, subsequently missing Week 2. But since returning in Week 3, he has provided solid scoring numbers and a great deal of promising usage. The TE fantasy trainwreck may actually have a player outperform his ADP cost.

Over the past two games, Ferguson has averaged 13.7 fantasy points, and the underlying metrics are even stronger. He has a 21.8% target share and has been utilized in the slot 62% of the time. Ferguson could see his usage increase even more with Brandin Cooks set to miss time after a minor knee surgery.

In a year of TE disappointments, Ferguson is a dark horse candidate to challenge for TE1 overall.

7. Breece Hall: The Braelon Allen problem

This was supposed to be the year for Breece Hall. He finished as the RB2 in 2023 despite a carousel of horrific QB play and poor run blocking behind an offensive line decimated by injuries. The thesis was simple: Hall would retain his status as the league’s top pass catching back, and explode as a runner with increased opportunities for TDs. Unlike Christian McCaffrey and the old dusty RBs (you know, the guys like Henry, Barkley and Kamara), Hall had youth and upside on his side. He was the natural league-winner pick at the RB position.

The thesis did not account for Braelon Allen being really good at football.

After one month of games, the numbers are troublesome, and a hope of an RB1 overall finish has been replaced with a whole lot of, “well, he will still finish as a Top 5 back.”

The rushing numbers through four games played:

  • Hall: 56 attempts for 174 yards (3.11 YPC)
  • Allen: 31 attempts for 130 yards (4.81 YPC)

Sunday’s loss to Denver was a low point for Hall managers and Jets fans alike.

Hall is back in the same place he was last year, needing to break off the occasional long run and catch a lot of passes. The Jets play against the 4-0 Vikings (9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday) in London. There will be a number of groggy-eyed and nervous Hall fantasy managers looking for a big bounce-back performance.

8. The curious case of Ja’Marr Chase’s target share

The Bengals lost longtime offensive mainstays Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd this past offseason, and Tee Higgins suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of Cincinnati’s first two games. So, naturally, star WR Chase would get peppered with targets early and often this season and build on his 100 catch total of 2023. Right?

Wrong.

Chase is averaging 16.5 PPR PPG — 13th among all wideouts. That’s not exactly league winner material, but not exactly a catastrophe. His recent scoring has been propped up by TD catches (he has three in the past two games), but the raw target numbers are baffling.

He has even been out-targeted by Higgins (16-13) since Higgins’ return. The season is still early and it is not time to panic … yet.

9. Dontayvion Wicks: Massive opportunity

Wicks was everyone’s favorite deep sleeper at the WR position this preseason. He flashed during his rookie year and in the NFL playoffs. Sure there would be target competition in the form of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, but also potential opportunity. Watson went down with an ankle injury in the Week 4 loss to Minnesota, and Wicks stepped up in a major way.

He was targeted 13 times and finished with five catches for 78 yards and two TDs. His day could have been even better but he dropped multiple passes, including a third TD. Wicks now has a massive opportunity in an increased role, and that most likely means another strong fantasy output.

If you drafted Wicks, or just claimed him off of the waiver wire, find a way to put him in your lineup this week.

10. Miami is a complete mess — no player is a safe start

Every year in the NFL there are terrible offenses that emerge. Sometimes these offenses are so bad that we try to fully avoid them. Offensive futility is not a new thing in a league of haves and have nots, but it is a new thing to see it with a Mike McDaniel-led offense.

  • Miami Dolphins points scored through four games played in 2023: 150
  • Miami Dolphins points scored through four games played in 2024: 45

The Dolphins are in a free fall. There is a glimmer of hope with Tua Tagovailoa potentially back in Week 8 but, as for now, we should be seriously considering benching all Dolphins and avoiding this mess entirely.

11. A non-Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua Rams WR in our Week 5 lineups?

No franchise has had more recent fantasy productivity out of Day 3 NFL draft picks than the Rams. In 2023, Puka Nacua (fifth round, 2023) finished as the WR4 and Kyren Williams (fifth round, 2022) finished as the RB7.

The Rams did not have a first-round selection for seven straight years (2016-2023) and their scouting department clearly adapted. So it should come as no surprise that this Sunday we should have another Rams late-round draft pick firmly entrenched in our fantasy lineups.

Jordan Whittington  — a sixth-round pick out of Texas — was a preseason standout. Injuries to the Rams’ two star wideouts have created a path to increased usage.

Whittington appears to have emerged from a pack of Rams veterans WRs as the preferred target of Matthew Stafford — at least until Kupp returns.

If the Rams make it three Day 3 success stories in a row, then the entire scouting department has earned a raise.

12. Speaking of Kyren Williams…

Williams remains uber productive. He enters the week averaging 20.4 PPG (RB4 overall).

His consistency has been remarkable. Williams has scored at least 14 PPR points in every game since Week 5 of the 2023 season, and has finished as RB21 or better every week during this streak.

He is working on another streak that you may think is pretty cool too.

The Kyren Williams faders are currently in shambles.

13. Chase Brown emerging in Cincy?

Chase Brown was buried in Weeks 1-2, with Zack Moss shouldering much of the load. In Week 3, Brown’s production increased significantly with 62 rushing yards on a career-high 8.9 YPC.

The 0-3 Bengals apparently did some self scouting. Desperately in need of a win, they gave Brown a career-high 17 touches and he proceeded to reward the coaching staff with one of the best RB performances of the week.

Brown finished with 92 combined yards and two TDs. The usage was especially promising.

The sample size is not large, but Brown’s efficiency is through the roof. He is averaging 6.32 yards per carry, the most of any player with at least 25 rushing attempts this season. He also is best among all RBs in stuff rate with an insane 20.8% rating.

The Bengals now face off against Henry and the Ravens in a pivotal AFC North matchup.

(Top photo of Brian Thomas Jr.: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)



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