Oscars: ‘Conclave’, ‘Emilia Pérez’, ‘September 5’, Kidman, Jolie, Almódovar Among Movies & Stars Landing Big Awards Momentum From Fall Film Festivals

The fall festival trifecta of Venice/Telluride/Toronto traditionally have been venues for the serious start of Oscar season. But that kind of awards-season mojo has been shifting, however slowly, with the most recent Best Picture winners, Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once, released July and March of their respective years. In fact, the big Oscar opponent and BAFTA winner to the latter title, All Quiet on the Western Front, also defied the odds, having first played at Berlin in late winter of 2022, around the same time Everything Everywhere debuted at SXSW.

Cannes also has become a much bigger factor in recent years, launching such winners and contenders as Parasite, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, Drive My Car, The Zone f Interest and others that went on to Best Picture nominations. That goes against the previous common wisdom that Cannes was a risky place to start an Oscar run as May is so far away from the prime time to campaign. So in other words, everything everywhere is being turned on its head when it comes to all things Oscar.

But there can be no question that the fall fests still offer a big platform, and that includes the New York and London festivals, starting on September 27 and October 9, respectively, which provide further boosts in Oscar voter-heavy places. AFI Film Festival in Hollywood also has moved up its showcase to late October, where it also can create buzz for the likes of Robert Zemeckis’ Here with Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, as well as a number of the films that launched traditionally in the fall fest window.

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So now, having attended, as I always do, both Telluride and Toronto and reviewing a large number of movies premiering at both as well as remotely reviewing some Venice debuts including Joker: Folie à Deux and September 5, it is time to take a first pass at what has popped Oscar-wise. We’re not talking about the whole year, just what recently has played to buzzy response critically and among Academy voters and other industry-ites who also attended.

Let’s take Venice first. The Golden Lion went to Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door, no doubt giving the first English-language film by the great Spanish auteur — who never had won the top prize at Venice or Cannes — a major boost. And with superlative performances by its stars Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton at its center, this gripping drama about one friend aiming to end her life with the help of another is one of Almodóvar’s best in recent years, no language barrier at all apparent on this one. Moore and Swinton both, rightly so, will be campaigned for Lead Actress, even if that means they split votes. It is a strategy distributor Sony Pictures Classics left in the hands of the stars.

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Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, a 3½-hour epic drama (with an intermission) spanning years from the Holocaust and forward several decades, instantly created buzz off its rave Venice reviews and the Best Director award for Corbet. When I went to see it at a 9:45 a.m. Toronto Film Festival press screening, journalists had, I am told, lined up around the block outside the rainy TIFF Lighthouse at 7 a.m. to see it. Luckily, a publicist saw me near the end of the queue and took mercy on me, so I got in — barely. It is powerful stuff, with great performances from Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce that will figure in the race, one of many contenders and acquisitions for A24 that the indie distributor gets to promote this year.

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Another is the sexually charged Babygirl with Nicole Kidman in a raw and stunning performance as a top executive who is involved with an affair with an office intern (Harris Dickinson). She won the Actress prize at Venice, deservedly, and is headed toward yet another Oscar nomination, as supporting actor Antonio Banderas might be as well. He’s great as her husband, clueless until he isn’t. Opening Christmas Day, the Helina Rejin-directed film will get a lot of attention for its provocative adult themes. A recent CAA screening brought out the likes of Brad Pitt, Olivia Wilde and other high-profile Oscar voters.

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Walter Salles was back in Venice with his best film in years, the sensational political drama I’m Still Here, which is set in 1970 during the military takeover of Brazil and the confinement and torture of those perceive as its enemies. Fernanda Torres delivers a blazing and heartbreaking lead performance as the wife of a former political figure on the left who is picked up for questioning and goes missing. This could be Brazil’s entry for the International Film Oscar race, but no matter what happens on that front, Sony Pictures Classics will open it for a week in November to qualify for Oscars, notably to promote Torres as Best Actress.

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Angelina Jolie drew strong Best Actress buzz at the fests for her riveting portrayal of opera star Maria Callas in Maria, Pablo Larrain’s latest focusing on iconic women in the spotlight (Jackie, Spencer). Netflix will be heavily campaigning her in what has turned out to be an especially crowded Venice for women amonth Kidman, Moore, Swinton, Torres and Jolie. The men didn’t quite get the same showcase, but Venice certainly boosted Brody’s chances at a second Oscar following The Pianist in 2002, when he was just 29. Luca Guadagnino’s Queer, another A24 pickup, won’t be for everyone, but you cannot deny the power and risky turn of Daniel Craig in this intriguing, graphic period drama about a gay man pursing a young man in Mexico City. For those who only have seen Craig as James Bond and not in other lesser-known movie roles like The Mother, it will be a revelation. Voters love to see actors change it up, and there is no question Craig delivers here.

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Since he won the Golden Lion for 2019’s Joker, which went on to 11 Oscar nominations and a Best Actor win for Joaquin Phoenix, it seemed like maybe Todd Phillips would strike lightning again with its sequel on the Lido. But it’s always hard to replicate that kind of success; George Miller, for example, took Furiosa to Cannes in May hoping to do the same thing after launching Mad Max: Fury Road there in 2015 on to road to great Oscar success, but Furiosa Oscar buzz failed to surface. The fate of Phillips’ Joker: Folie à Deux, at least Oscar-wise, probably will be told after it opens early next month, but this musical take with Lady Gaga joining Phoenix was the kind of risky swing I love as I praised in my review. But other critics were mixed, and it currently has a middling 63 Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score (similar to the 69 Fresh for the 2019 film), so let it open and see what happens. Folie à Deux has much to say about the state of society and questionable hero worship in the name of keeping the masses entertained in a TMZ era. Whether hard-core Joker fans respond is a real question as the studio isn’t emphasizing its musical elements in their trailers. Also I don’t know if it is eligible as a stand-alone, but the enormously clever Joker cartoon that precedes the movie should be a prime candidate for an Animated Short nomination. It comes from Oscar-nominated animator Sylvain Chomet (The Triplets of Belleville) and is a real kick.

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Warners also opened Venice with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, but other than crafts, that isn’t looking like an Oscar play at this moment. Maybe its huge box office will change things, just as it did for Barbie. Intriguingly, the studio recently announced Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2 will world premiere at AFI Fest next month, with a limited release in November. The shrewd 94-year-old filmmaker did a similar strategy for his Oscar-winning Million Dollar Baby, holding back and then pouncing as a previously undated late entry to get into the conversation.

Most of the above were in competition, but one that wasn’t — and in fact almost buried as a “Horizon Extra,” not even in the actual Horizon section — is September 5, the pulse-pounding account of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre as seen through the eyes of the ABC Sports team there to cover the games but suddenly found themselves at the center of a major global news event. With top-notch performances from Peter Sarsgaard and particularly an Oscar-worthy turn from John Magaro and superb filmmaking, this movie seems like a no-brainer for an Oscar campaign, and it looks like it finally will get one as Paramount, which had the rights and labeled it under its Republic Pictures logo, saw the reviews out of Venice (including mine for Deadline) and later Telluride and realized it might have gold here. The studio had been floating it for sale but now is fully on board. It reminded me of when Warners (and its now-long-defunct specialty division Warner Independent) let its indie Slumdog Millionaire slip away to Fox Searchlight and regretted the move later after eight Oscars including Best Picture. No such unforced Oscar season error this time. Opening in November, September 5, directed by Swiss filmmaker Tim Fehlbaum is simply extraordinary — and timely.

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The Labor Day weekend Telluride Film Festival — which, BTW, world-premiered Slumdog Millionaire in 2008, establishing its own cred as a good place for an Oscar launch — had a robust lineup to rival that of Venice happening at the same time. September 5 really got major notice in the Rockies right after its Venice debut, and several titles from Cannes in May got wildly enthusiastic North American premieres there as well including Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner Anora, Grand Prize winner All We Imagine as Light, Iranian thriller The Seed of the Sacred Fig and a “surprise” previously unannounced launch for the Donald Trump origin story The Apprentice. It was a huge question mark for distribution, but thanks to Tom Ortenberg and his Briarcliff company, the pic will open pre-election on October 11. It was just as well received in its Telluride U.S. debut as it was in Cannes, where I reviewed it. If there is any justice, and the election results could factor into this, Sebastian Stan, perfection as the younger Trump, and a terrific Jeremy Strong as his take-no-prisoners lawyer and mentor Roy Cohn both deserve Oscar consideration.

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One other Cannes import for its North American debut at Telluride was Jacques Audiard’s fantastic musical drama Emilia Pérez, which won all four of its stars the Actress prize in Cannes as well as the Jury Prize for Audiard and was just announced as the French entry for the Oscars International Film category. It was received rapturously in Telluride, and later in Toronto, where despite not having its Canadian premiere until five days into the festival managed to become first runner-up for the Oscar-harbinger People’s Choice Award at TIFF. (The winner, The Life of Chuck, doesn’t even have distribution yet or any plan to open this year, leaving Pérez is the top-ranked Oscar contender at Toronto). This film about a Cartel criminal who undergoes a sex change is quickly rising to the top of awards season favorites, and might be Netflix’s best hope to finally win the elusive Best Picture Oscar.

Telluride world premiere Conclave, director Edward Berger’s first film since All Quiet on the Western Front, is another that instantly rose to the top of contenders after its Friday premiere Labor Day weekend. It’s a very popular film among Oscar voters I talked to (as was Pérez) and one that could score big with Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, several crafts and acting nominations including a certain Best Actor nom for Ralph Fiennes as the cardinal overseeing the election of a new pope and a Supporting Actress nom for Isabella Rossellini as a nun with a couple of key scenes even if she only has relatively brief screen time. The entire cast is great, and the movie is gripping — the kind of film with unquestionable appeal for the more traditional older Academy members. It also has a shot of being the first Focus Features movie to win Best Picture.

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The screen adaptation of August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson also was well received, with plaudits for director Malcolm Washington and the performance of his brother John David Washington in this Washington family affair produced by dad Denzel. Samuel L. Jackson could turn up in the Supporting Actor race 30 years after being nominated for Pulp Fiction, and Danielle Deadwyler, so great and overlooked in Till, deserves recognition here for her stunning lead performance in this fine cinematic adaptation with many members of the recent Broadway revival in its cast.

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Jason Reitman’s hilarious and heartfelt Saturday Night could factor at the Golden Globes Comedy/Musical category as a prelude to being a rare comedy breakout at the Oscars, where being funny isn’t always appreciated. At the very least, the pic about the lead-up to SNL’s October 1975 first episode should have consideration for the SAG Cast Award. It is a brilliantly assembled ensemble. The movie drew a strong response at its Telluride premiere and is a load of fun, perfectly timed for SNL‘s 50th anniversary celebration.

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Getting a more mixed response — love it or hate it — was the film adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Nickel Boys. RaMell Ross, in his narrative feature directing debut, uses an annoying visual gimmick focused on the POV of each character, with conversations carried out in a one-sided way — a device that constantly took me out of the story, which is indeed a worthy one. Too often it comes off as Terence Malick-lite. When you start watching the filmmaking rather than the film, it’s trouble. Still, other critics didn’t mind and the few reviews now on Rotten Tomatoes are generally good, if mixed. The strength of the film is in the performances which could not have been easy due to the fact characters had to act to camera.

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Paramount’s Robbie Williams musical biopic, in which he (yes!) plays himself as a monkey — and it works — had successful premieres at Telluride and then Toronto, where Williams delivered a mini-concert for the luckily invited crowd. Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman) really delivers solid musical numbers for Better Man, which opens in December and could turn up at the Golden Globes for starters. And speaking of Williams and music, there is plenty of it divinely woven into the clever Lego-animated biopic of Pharrell Williams, Piece by Piece, a combination documentary/animated musical directed by Morgan Neville that definitely deserves entry into this year’s Animated Feature race, maybe even Documentary Feature, but also will be campaigned by Focus as a Best Picture contender.

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And in a big year for musicals, Neon world premiered the inventive and odd apocalyptic tuner The End at Telluride, with stars Tilda Swinton and Michael Shannon among a fine cast singing their way to the end of the world. There might be some original songs that figure into the Best Song category, and the production design is to die for.

By the time we got to Toronto, most of the fall fest Oscar hopefuls already had premiered at Venice or Telluride, somewhat diminishing a festival long known for being a key destination to break your big Oscar movies. This year’s TIFF was overwhelmed with market titles, and most of the reviews I was doing there were for movies looking for distribution. Still, TIFF is one of my favorites, and it highlights just about everything that also appeared at Telluride, Venice, Cannes, even Sundance, so it is really one-stop shopping and especially well-run. The biggest world premiere was Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s wonderful The Wild Robot, which looks headed to a major faceoff with Pixar’s Inside Out 2 for Animated Feature Oscar. Kris Bower’s majestic score is a big winner too, if you ask me.

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Although well-acted, Bleecker Street’s TIFF debut and Oscar hopeful Hard Truths is minor Mike Leigh. But it certainly is to be recommended if only for the acting, especially Marianne Jean-Baptiste, magnificent as a woman beaten down by the world and taking it out on everyone she encounters including her poor family. Brian Tyree Henry also got high praise as the boxing coach in Rachel Morrison’s directorial debut, The Fire Inside, and instantly staked a claim to what could be yet another Supporting Actor nomination for him.

Hugh Grant and Amy Adams got the kind of reviews that could light up an Oscar campaign. Overdue Grant could contend for his against-type creepy turn in A24’s November release Heretic, which was just announced for an AFI Fest Gala, and Adams has put herself firmly in the running for a seventh (!) Oscar nomination with her lilting performance as an overworked mother of a 2-year-old in Marielle Heller’s beautifully realized adaptation Nightbitch. It’s one that not only every mother should see but definitely every father. Hopefully Searchlight gives it the nurturing Oscar campaign it deserves.

Performance-wise, some other world premieres at TIFF also delivered. Jennifer Lopez and Jharrel Jerome were very fine in Amazon’s inspiring wrestling and family drama Unstoppable, and Andrew Garfield and the brilliant Florence Pugh in the examination of a marriage in John Crowley’s We Live in Time, yet another A24 release.

Whew. 11 straight nights of sleep deprivation seeing movies and turning out reviews in this Fall Fest Fanstasia of cinema. What now survives the long and official six-month climb to Oscar Night on March 2 remains to be seen, but no question we will see some of these contenders on the red carpet.

To be continued.