Jets free-agent stock watch: Can Winnipeg keep its No. 1 roster together long-term?

The Winnipeg Jets were underrated by most national pundits this offseason, including right here at The Athletic.

“The 2024-25 Jets look a lot weaker than the one that bowed out of the first round after just five games,” wrote Dom Luszczyszyn on July 10.

The next day, only 75 percent of our writers picked the Jets to qualify for the 2025 playoffs.

I’m not sure whether you’ve noticed, but the Jets are 15-2-0 now. They have a 4-point lead over the New Jersey Devils for the top spot in the NHL, despite playing three fewer games. Things are going pretty well for a team accused of “running it back” as though that was supposed to make them a lottery team.

But what happens next summer?

Winnipeg has five pending unrestricted free agents playing key roles in its early season success. Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk, Mason Appleton, Vladislav Namestnikov and Alex Iafallo are scheduled to become UFAs this summer, and Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg are heading toward big raises as restricted free agents.

Can the team that ran it back on its way to the top of the NHL standings afford to do it again now that all of its free agents are on pace for a career year?

Today, we take a long-term view of the Jets, projecting cap hits for their 2025-26 team, and assessing Winnipeg’s future based on next year’s salary cap.

The Jets’ salary-cap outlook

Winnipeg has $51 million committed to the following players in 2025-26:

Kind of a sparse roster, isn’t it?

This table skips Winnipeg’s restricted free agents — Vilardi, Samberg, Rasmus Kupari and Morgan Barron. Those players will have arbitration rights and are likely to remain under team control, regardless of their eventual contract figure or their long-term future.

Winnipeg’s pending UFAs are the players who provide the most questions.

The Jets are likely to retain a few of Ehlers, Appleton, Iafallo, Namestnikov, Pionk, Fleury and Coghlan — as well as minor-league UFAs such as Dominic Toninato and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby. But which ones? And for how much money?

The Jets will have ample cap room from which to make a series of difficult decisions. The cap maximum is projected to increase to $92.5 million, and the Jets are aided by the end of Blake Wheeler’s $2.75 million buyout and a reduction in the cost of their Nate Schmidt buyout.

All told, Winnipeg should have about $40 million to commit to building out the rest of its roster. The biggest counteracting pressure to this boost will be raises due to Vilardi and Samberg, but the Jets are still in a strong position concerning the cap.

One little “problem” though. Led by Ehlers, Vilardi, Pionk and Appleton, many of Winnipeg’s top free agents — both restricted and unrestricted — are playing themselves toward a substantial uptick in cost.

Winnipeg’s two biggest cases for its two biggest raises

Ehlers has scored nine goals and 11 assists for 20 points in 17 games. He’s second only to Mark Scheifele ($8.5 million) and Kyle Connor ($7.14 million) in points, adding top-unit power-play duties to his traditionally strong five-on-five scoring rates, and is playing on a contract with a cap hit of $6 million.

Ehlers’ power-play promotion is a particularly big deal. Players get paid predominantly based on the points they produce and the minutes they play. Ehlers is the same player he’s always been, but now he’s on pace for 96 points, thanks to a power play scoring more often than the best one in NHL history. As long as Ehlers keeps his job on that unit — and he should, given how much he contributes to its success — a point-per-game season seems like a conservative outcome. (He’s scoring at an unsustainable, career-best 20.5 percent of his shots, so some drop-off from his 96-point pace should be expected.)

There are factors working against Ehlers when he signs his next contract. He’s stayed healthy for an average of 63 out of 82 games, based on the three seasons before this one. He doesn’t come with first-line clout the same way Connor will next year; multiple coaching staffs have used Ehlers as a secondary scoring option at even strength without ever committing to him on the top line. The market might conclude a long-term deal is a risk for an oft-injured player whose hallmark is his footspeed or short him for subpar playoff point totals.

Barring a midseason extension, Ehlers will hit the UFA market at 29 years old. The Jets will likely get more value out of the deal he’s been on for the last several years than on an extension, particularly if it comes close to the $7.5 million AAV I’m forecasting. My guess is he covers the bet for three or four seasons before his footspeed starts to flag; a long-term deal is not without risk.

And all that’s if Ehlers signs in Winnipeg, not when. He’s on pace for a career season and, despite his love for the city and his teammates, a reunion is not guaranteed.

Mark Scheifele ➡️ Nikolaj Ehlers

The #NHLJets lead 4-0. The NHL’s best power play strikes again.
pic.twitter.com/vQBwdgV10N

— Connor Hrabchak (@ConnorHrabchak1) November 9, 2024

Gabriel Vilardi is on pace to play the first fully healthy season of his career. That sentence might be the only thing holding him back from an enormous payday.

Vilardi plays top-line minutes with Connor and Scheifele, earning their praise and admiration. He plays top-unit power-play minutes, earning leaguewide adulation for his size, hands and decision-making wizardry. Vilardi always seems to make the right read to exploit his coverage, making him last year’s de facto power play quarterback and one of several assets at the Jets’ disposal now that the power play is the class of the NHL.

The two-year, $3.4 million AAV contract Vilardi signed in 2022 expires next summer. He’ll still be two years away from UFA eligibility, meaning one of Winnipeg’s options would be to sign him to a one-year deal and try again the next season. He’ll also have arbitration rights, which he could use to ensure a short-term deal if he wants to bet on an even bigger season next year.

I’d put wide error bars on any long-term contract projection. Vilardi is on pace for 68 points by season’s end but has been prone to dizzying swings in production. Still, it seems reasonable that a long-term deal could cost Winnipeg anywhere between $7 million and $8 million. If either party is unwilling to make that long-term commitment, a one-year bridge deal (through arbitration or otherwise) could save Winnipeg in the short run while exposing both parties to long-term risk. Vilardi’s health is a valid concern, as is the risk of his scoring his way to another contract tier when everything clicks.

A player’s “platform year” — the year before their contract — has the biggest impact on their payday, but teams are more willing to spend on players who chain together multiple great seasons in a row. The Jets have options here — as does Vilardi. The best-case scenario involves his continued development, consistent health and a long-term deal that neatly consolidates Winnipeg’s success trading PL Dubois.

Trust us, you’re going to want to watch this gorgeous goal from Gabriel Vilardi! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/TUBKBtS1Oh

— NHL (@NHL) November 13, 2024

A third, early case for a substantial raise

There is a world in which Ehlers and Vilardi take up $15 million in cap space between them, reducing Winnipeg’s budget from $40 million to $25 million.

It would be awfully convenient if Winnipeg found ways to sign important depth players to value contracts.

Mason Appleton’s early-season performance isn’t making that easy. The 28-year-old is delivering supreme value for his $2.17 million cap hit and is on pace to follow last season’s career high of 36 points with 48 points this year. He’s not playing the role of some run-of-the-mill bottom-six forward, either: Appleton plays key minutes on Winnipeg’s shutdown line and is fourth among Jets forwards in five-on-five ice time per game.

It does seem reasonable to predict regression for Appleton’s offensive output, but his role on this Jets team is beyond question. He’ll turn 29 in January and, if I were his agent, I’d be pointing at Nino Niederreiter’s $4.0 million and saying: Why not me? I’m not saying the Jets should pay that if it’s the ask, but I wouldn’t think of a request like “pay me like you pay my linemates” as unreasonable. We will use an AAV of $3.5 million for our estimate in this piece.

A redemption story in the making

I fully expect the Jets to re-sign Neal Pionk this summer. The only thing that gets complicated for me is Pionk’s price point. He’s been playing a top-four role in Winnipeg since arrival, following early excellence with a couple of injury-addled seasons that suggested a pay cut from the $5.875 million he earns now.

But Pionk’s foot injury is behind him. He’s moving well again, gapping aggressively at the Jets blue line and joining the rush to add offence — 17 points in 17 games, at that. I don’t think anyone would have predicted Pionk matching Josh Morrissey point for point prior to the start of the season, but here we are.

The Jets’ job is to look beyond the raw point totals, not getting fooled by Pionk’s shooting percentage or the enormous impact of their second power-play unit. He’s having a great start to the season — and was justifiably ranked by The Athletic as one of the top bounce-back players of the year — but some of his eye-catching offence comes from circumstance.

I should acknowledge that I’ve been preaching patience with Pionk for so long it seems strange to offer a “pump the brakes” opinion now. My caution comes from a sense of risk: Winnipeg’s value proposition with the 29-year-old defenceman swings wildly for me if it pays him for his peak production. There’s a sizable distance between Pionk at his best and Pionk when he’s struggling and another contract near (or above) $6.0 million would seem like a big bet on his best self.

An ideal part of Winnipeg’s long-term core

Dylan Samberg’s growth has been a big part of Winnipeg’s season success. He and Pionk are playing tough minutes regularly and beating them, despite occasional wobbles in coverage or breakout passes gone awry.

We took a longer look at Samberg’s contract future in a recent mailbag, wondering about a $3.5 million AAV. We’ll use that figure for the purposes of this piece.

Veteran forwards who shouldn’t break the bank

The only time Namestnikov has ever signed with a team for longer than two years, he was a recently drafted rookie signing his entry-level contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The versatile forward who centres Winnipeg’s secondary scoring line has played to a series of one- and two-year deals since then, including the two-year, $2.0 million AAV he has now.

Namestnikov has played his best hockey in Winnipeg, establishing himself as a chemistry fit with Ehlers and Cole Perfetti and delivering a career high of 37 points one year ago. He has 12 points in 17 games so far, giving himself plenty of opportunity to improve upon that number.

Winnipeg’s fourth line is an underrated part of the Jets’ overall success. No, Iafallo won’t live up to his $4.0 million AAV this season from his spot on the depth chart, but he remains a quality player with a great defensive stick, a little bit of offence and plenty of trust from coach Scott Arniel. I’m not sure whether there’s a long-term fit available but believe the Jets would be more than happy to retain Iafallo at a reduced rate, more suited to his role. Would you be content with Namestnikov and Iafallo returning at $2.5 million AAV each?

Kupari and Barron have shown themselves to be key contributors this season but aren’t risks for raises too far beyond the $1.0 million and $1.35 million AAVs they carry now. We will use $1.5 million each as nice, round numbers for this piece.

(Video courtesy of Michael Remis)

Honourable mentions

Haydn Fleury, Dylan Coghlan, Kaapo Kahkonen, Jonsson-Fjallby and Toninato are all pending free agents. These aren’t the players who will break the bank or cause cap hell, but Jonsson-Fjallby and Toninato have long track records with the Jets at this stage. I could see Winnipeg looking to extend their relationships.

What happens if everyone cashes in?

Do you want to know the wild thing about what happens if the Jets pay all of these projected contracts to Ehlers, Vilardi, Pionk, Appleton, Samberg, Namestnikov, Iafallo, Barron and Kupari?

This roster would start the 2025-26 season with roughly $2.5 million in cap space.

It’s also worth noting that Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, Elias Salomonsson and the rest of Winnipeg’s top prospects will still be on their entry-level contracts. The Jets could keep them in Manitoba if they deemed fit, or promote them at the expense of a pricier veteran. Winnipeg will have much more clarity about Lambert, Salomonsson, et al’s NHL readiness by the end of this season and can make decisions based on those more accurate projections.

What does it all mean?

If there’s a will, there’s a way. Winnipeg does have room to pay all of its free agents market value for their work — and that includes Ehlers, whose future seems to be the most in doubt. It probably has room to retain all of those players while giving Connor a raise in 2026-27.

The Jets’ cap outlook gives them flexibility and strength regardless of the tough decisions and big contracts on their plate next summer.

(Photo of Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)